应张凡研究员邀请，美国佛罗里达州立大学叶明副教授将于2012年5月23-25日期间在我所集中讲授《Model Calibration and Predictive Uncertainty Analysis》短期课程，分为三讲：
|
日期 |
时间 |
内容 |
地点 | |
| 第一讲 | 2012-5-23（周三） | 10:00-14:00 | Nonlinear Regression Methods | 青藏所旧址二楼会议室 |
| 第二讲 | 2012-5-24（周四） | 10:00-14:00 | Bayesian Methods | 青藏所旧址二楼会议室 |
| 第三讲 | 2012-5-25（周五） | 10:00-14:00 | Geostatistical Methods | 青藏所旧址二楼会议室 |
“10:00-12:00授课内容讲解；12:00-12:30午餐盒饭；12:30-2:00上机操作辅导欢迎大家踊跃参加！有兴趣参加上机操作练习的同学请携带笔记本电脑。 ”！（青藏所旧址：海淀区双清路18号）
来访专家简介:
叶明1997年南京大学地球科学系本科毕业，2002年美国亚利桑那大学水文及水资源系毕业并获博士学位。叶明现为美国地球物理学会《Water Resources Research》杂志副主编，并为Interagency Steering Committee on Multimedia Environmental Models (https://iemhub.org/topics/iscmem) 第二工作组 (Working Group 2: Prediction and Uncertainty) 成员。叶明已发表学术论文三十余篇。其科研多次获得美国国家自然科学基金，能源部，国防部，原子能管理委员，以及佛罗里达州环保厅的资助。2012 获得美国能源部 Early Career Award ，并被选为美国地质学会理事 (Fellow of the American Geological Society).
摘要:
There has been a growing awareness among environmental scientists of the need to calibrate environmental models and quantify the uncertainty associated with outcomes produced by the models. A similar awareness is growing among regulatory agencies, decision makers, stakeholders and informed segments of the general public. With recent development of computers and computational methods, advanced model calibration techniques have been used in environmental inverse modeling. Similarly, advanced methods of uncertainty analysis have emerged. Model calibration and predictive uncertainty quantification is arguably one of the fastest growing sub-disciplines in environmental sciences and engineering. It is the intent of this short course to cover the theory and practice of model calibration, model predictive uncertainty analysis, and model-based environmental management. The course will include both theoretical and practical components for participants to gain solid understanding and hand-on experience. Graduate students and working professionals across the whole spectrum of environmental modeling will benefit from this course.
